Alabama Scene

Bob Martin is editor and publisher of The Montgomery Independent E-mail: bob@montgomery independent.com The latest announced candidate for governor in the Republican Primary is the current governor's longtime buddy and campaign coordinator, Bill Johnson, the head of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA), the state spigot through which a lot of federal money flows. He has an interesting past.

When Johnson left his ADECA post in 2006 to become the grassroots coordinator for Gov. Bob Riley's re-election effort, state Democrats wasted no time putting up a television commercial advertising his past, which included years of failing to pay taxes. He had also headed Riley's grass-roots efforts in 2002.

In 1994 Johnson ran on the Libertarian ticket for the U. S. Senate in Missouri, challenging incumbent Republican John Ashcroft. In that race, according to reports in The Mobile Press- Register, his platform included advocating the legalization of drugs and prostitution. He also disclosed that he had failed to pay federal income taxes for 14 years because he “refused to finance an arrogant, unresponsive and corrupt" government.

He later moved to Alabama and served as a Birmingham City Council member. He was appointed ADECA director by Riley in May 2005, succeeding John Harrison, who became the state banking superintendent. Johnson hooked up with Riley in 1995, working in his first of three congressional campaigns before his election as governor in 2002.

Johnson ended up as congressional campaign manager and was appointed chief of staff by Riley but, according to the Press- Register, ended up resigning after the views he expressed in Missouri during his 1994 campaign became public. Johnson has been quoted as saying that in 1996 he changed his opinion of the federal government after Republicans won congressional majorities in 1994. He has also said that the positions on pot and prostitution were those of the Libertarian Party.

So there you have it...entry No. 6 into the GOP governor's race. Who will be No. 7...Harri Ann Smith?

Assessing the GOP candidates

I have talked with several knowledgeable sources concerning the potential for each of the candidates. The general conclusions in the Republican arena listed in alphabetical order are:

Robert Bentley, a state representative from Tuscaloosa. "Nice guy, but no chance."

Bradley Byrne, a lawyer from Montrose who served in the state Senate and as chancellor of the state's two-year college system. "Likely to be the front-runner.”

Kay Ivey, state treasurer. "Could be a contender if the women turn out and Smith doesn't jump in."

Tim James, businessman. "Nice guy, finished third in 2002 GOP Primary with 9 percent of the vote, a chip off the block, but too many remember the block, and Roy Moore is likely to take a lot of daddy's vote.

Bill Johnson, former head of ADECA. Has handed out a lot of grant money and lots of folks like him. Could get Riley help, but his failure to pay taxes for 14 years will doom any chance.

Roy Moore, lawyer, former chief justice, but removed from office. Will still get a good number of his former voters and needs to run to keep the cash flowing in, but will have difficult time making a run-off he can't win.

Assessing the Democrats

The two candidates as of this past Tuesday were Congressman Artur Davis and State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. It is expected that Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb might enter the race, and that would place an entirely different equation into play.

Davis is striving to become the first African-American elected governor in a deep south state. His obvious strength is the large number of blacks who vote in the Democratic Primary, but he is also hoping to attract a decent percentage of the white vote. His obvious weakness is the simple fact that, even though blacks have been elected to statewide office in Alabama, those were exceptional cases. And in this election just about every local office is up for grabs and there will be a lot of white candidates out there pulling their supporters to the ballot box. This will increase the white-voter turnout.

Davis's advantages are that he is an attractive candidate and, so far, is running a good campaign and could make inroads into the white vote. However, there is a distinct fear prevalent among Democrats, white and black, that even should he become the Democratic nominee, he couldn't win in the general election.

Sparks's struggle will be to win the Democratic nomination. The DeKalb native, however, is no stranger to state elections. He has been elected twice statewide as ag commissioner and has the backing of the Alabama Farmer's Federation (ALFA), and one political observer has called him "just country enough to win in Alabama."